13:50 Sandown – Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m7 1/2f
Dan Skelton will be hoping to follow the same path as L’Eau Du Sud — last year’s winner — with Be Aware, but it won’t be an easy task with Lulamba standing in his way.
Nicky Henderson has taken this race with Jonbon in 2022 and Altior in 2016, so he usually brings a good one here. However, I do question whether Lulamba is up to the standard of those previous winners.
Lump Sum also can’t be dismissed, especially with his form behind Sir Gino in last season’s Fighting Fifth.
The race trends are as follows:
- 12/12 – Had at least 3 runs over 15-17f
- 12/12 – Had at least 1 chase run
- 12/12 – Had ran and won that season
- 12/12 – Ran within the last 29 days
- 11/12 – Had at least 3 hurdle runs
- 11/12 – Had won over fences
- 10/12 – Aged 5 or 6
- 9/12 – Won last time out
- 9/12 – Won 2+ times over 15-17f
- 7/12 – Within the top 3 of the betting
- 6/12 – Won a Grade 1 or 2 before
- 5/12 – Ran at Sandown before
- 3/12 – Won at Sandown before
- 3/12 – Used the Cheltenham Novices’ Chase as a prep (1 won, 2 placed)
- 4/12 – Winning favourites
Trends predicted tri-cast: 🥇 Be Aware, 🥈 Lulamba / Lump Sum, 🥉 Alinilam
To find a cheat sheet which shows all the horses who fit each trend click here.
14:40 Aintree – William Hill Half A Mill Becher Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 3m2f
This looks like a fairly competitive handicap to try to win, but there are some key trends to keep in mind.
Twenty of the last twenty-two winners were aged eight or older, which rules out three horses: Excello (6), Bioluminescence (7), and Westerninthepark (7).
Another important trend is carrying 10-12 or less, which counts heavily against the favourite. Ideally, you’re looking for a horse rated between 123 and 138.
The races trends are as follows (2024’s race was abandoned due to a waterlogged track):
- 20/22 – Aged 8+
- 18/22 – Had won between 2-5 times (chase)
- 18/22 – Had won over at least 3 miles (chase)
- 18/22 – Had no more than 1 start that season
- 17/22 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 17/22 – Carried 10-12 or less
- 16/22 – Aged 9+
- 14/22 – Ran over the Grand National-style fences before
- 13/22 – Rated between 123 – 138
- 12/22 – Irish bred
- 12/22 – Returned a double-figure price
- 8/22 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
- 5/22 – Winning favourites
- 4/22 – Won last time out
- 3/22 – Irish trained winners
- Only 1 of the last 22 winners went on to win the Grand National in their career (0 in the same season).
- The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 12/1.
Trends predicted tri-cast: 🥇 Galia Des Liteaux, 🥈 Twig 🥉Bill Baxter / Val Dancer
To find a cheat sheet which shows all the horses who fit each trend click here.
15:00 Sandown – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) 1m7 1/2f
The feature race of the weekend is the Tingle Creek, a contest Jonbon has dominated for the past two years. However, he hasn’t looked at his best recently and arrives with a bit to prove. That said, he’s a dual winner of the race, so it would be unwise to rule him out entirely, even if he does appear to have his best days behind him.
It’s also worth noting that only three odds-on favourites have won this race, and all were trained by Nicky Henderson: Jonbon in 2023 and 2024, and Altior in 2018.
L’Eau Du Sud comes here after dismantling Jonbon at Cheltenham, so he has every chance, though he still has something to find on the ratings. Dan Skelton has been flying this season, so you certainly can’t dismiss the possibility of further improvement.
Willie Mullins sends over Il Etait Temps, who looks a class above the rest and posts a 97.03 on my trend scores. He has a major chance.
The race trends are as follows:
- 22/23 – Aged 9 or younger
- 21/23 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
- 20/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 20/23 – Had won a Grade 1 chase previously
- 19/23 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
- 18/23 – Aged between 5-8 years old
- 17/23 – French bred
- 17/23 – Official rating 165+
- 16/23 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
- 15/23 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
- 15/23 – Had won at Sandown previously (chase)
- 15/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint favs)
- 14/23 – Won last time out
- 7/23 – Had previously won the race before
- Nicky Henderson has won the race four times.
- 6 winners of the race went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season.
- Average winning SP of the last 23 runnings is 5/2.
Trends predicted tri-cast: 🥇 Il Etait Temps, 🥈 L’eau Du Sud, 🥉 Jonbon
To find a cheat sheet which shows all the horses who fit each trend click here.
