It’s been a bit of a hit-and-miss festival for me so far, but I’ve been close enough with a few selections to keep the confidence up — certainly not giving up hope yet. I’ll be back for day three without hesitation.
Once again, I’ll be going through the card and sharing my thoughts on the most likely winners.
- 13:15 – BRAS D’OR (E/W)
- 13:45 – JIG’S FORGE (NAP)
- 14:40 – ST FAZ (E/W)
- 14:55 – PROTEKTORAT
- 15:30 – CELTIC DINO & RUBBER BALL (E/W)
- 16:00 – BUD FOX
13:15 – mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle (Novices’ Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m 1/2f
This looks an interesting 17-runner handicap, and with a field this size I naturally lean towards trying to find some each-way value to keep myself covered.
I can definitely see the case for the favourite, Act Of Innocence — on paper he probably brings the strongest form into the race. My only concern is whether Nicky’s horses have been needing their first run, and with that bit of uncertainty in mind, I’m happy to take him on.
While going through the card, one thing caught my eye: JP has a runner with David Pipe, which is something you don’t see very often. Pipe’s yard is in good form with a healthy strike rate, which is encouraging. The horse is BRAS D’OR.
The horse is lightly raced, and although we don’t yet know what he’ll produce over hurdles, his point-to-point form behind Un Sens La Vie reads well — even if that rival hasn’t progressed as expected. At the time of writing, he’s 12/1, and with four places available, that looks a fair each-way angle to me.
13:45 – Bottlegreen Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+) 2m4f
I’m very keen on JIG’S FORGE in this race.
He contested the Albert Bartlett on just his third start under rules, which tells you how highly Ben Pauling and the team rate him. He didn’t disgrace himself either: though beaten 19 lengths, the form of that race suggests he’s capable of better than his current mark of 132, and I think there’s more to come.
He also brings chasing experience from three point-to-points—all on heavy ground—so he should improve again now sent over fences.
Ben Pauling is operating at a 22% strike rate and has a strong record with horses switching from hurdles to fences, and this could be another. In his At The Races stable tour, Pauling said:
“He is a lovely individual, and I don’t think he quite stays three miles at the moment. He loves soft ground, and I think he could be a very good novice chaser for the season over two and a half miles, and we will take it from there.”
He gets exactly those conditions here, and I’m hoping he can give us a good run for our money.
14:40 – Hine Solicitors Talking Sense Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m
I thought this was a really unusual race and certainly won’t be any betting angle from me here. Take Glengouly, for example — he was running in the 2024 Grand National and now lines up at Cheltenham in a 2-mile handicap off a mark of 121.
However, one runner that does stand out is ST FAZ, trained by Gordon Elliott, with Sean Bowen booked. He should handle the conditions well after his spin around the block at Down Royal on his chase debut.
With a bit of experience now under his belt and conditions likely to suit, I’d be happy to take a chance on him here.
14:55 – Oddschecker Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) 3m 3 1/2f
The old boy PROTEKTORAT steps up in trip for the first time in a while, which is intriguing. It feels like a smart move — he’s not getting any younger, he should relish the soft ground, and on ratings he’s 10lbs clear of the field, making him very hard to oppose.
I tried to find an improver who might catch him out, but he still looks the most likely winner. There isn’t much at an appealing each-way price, so I’ve ended up siding with the Skeltons.
For anyone who’s forgotten, PROTEKTORAT does have solid staying form in the book. You have to go back a few years, but he’s a Betfair Chase winner and has run well in two Cheltenham Gold Cups — third in 2022 and fifth in 2023.
You can’t say the same for the rest of this field, and given his age, I think returning to these longer trips makes plenty of sense.
His main dangers look to be Beauport and Tanganyika.
15:30 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) 2m 1/2f
This race was a real puzzle — you could make a case for plenty of them.
I was surprised to see CELTIC DINO available at double-figure odds with some bookmakers. He has solid form in the book, and not too long ago he was favourite for this very race. Maybe the ground has put a few people off, but as a Doctor Dino gelding, there’s no real reason he shouldn’t cope with it. He won’t want it heavy, but with no rain forecast from Saturday night into Sunday, the ground should dry out a fair bit. At the prices, he’s worth chancing.
Another one I like is RUBBER BALL. He was well beaten at Aintree, but that came against much stronger opposition. His form can be inconsistent, but he did beat Serious Challenge last season — and that one is currently an 8/1 shot here. There’s enough in his profile to justify taking a swing at the price, and at 16/1 he’s worth another go.
16:00 – Three Counties Christmas Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-5yo) 2m 1/2f
The Skeltons stole this race last year with a brilliant ride on Fortune De Mer — Harry barely had to move — so it’ll be interesting to see what this year’s renewal produces.
BUD FOX continues to shorten in the market, and with Celestial Tune winning on Saturday, there’s even more reason to give him serious consideration.
Chicker looks a fair each-way price. He should come on for that run at the October meeting, and there’s no obvious reason he can’t go close again here.
That said, this is a sit back and watch race for me.
