There’s nothing better than racing at Cheltenham, and we’ve got two fantastic days of it ahead!
This won’t be a traditional “selections” post — instead, I’ll be sharing my thoughts and opinions on the races, highlighting who I think are the most likely winners. I’ll also touch on a few outsiders that could run well at a price, as well as those races that look best kept simple.
- 12:35 – PRECIOUS MAN
- 13:10 – KELCE (E/W)
- 13:45 – BE AWARE
- 14:20 – BAD (E/W)
- 14:55 – GOWEL ROAD (E/W)
- 15:30 – ROYAL INFANTRY
- 16:00 – ROCK SENSATION
12:35 – Jcb Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 2m 1/2f
This race produced East India Dock last year, so it’s always one that can unearth a useful type — and I’m keen to see what it throws up this season.
James Owen introduces Hallelujah U, who brings a Flat rating of 100 into this sphere. On that mark alone, he commands plenty of respect if able to translate that level of ability over obstacles. He also arrives with a clear fitness edge following a busy Flat campaign and fits a similar profile to East India Dock, which makes him an intriguing contender. That said, Owen has been open in suggesting he may just need the run, so I’ll be holding fire for now.
The Skelton team unveil their new French recruit, PRECIOUS MAN. His form across the Channel reads well enough, though there’s not a great deal to go on. Even so, the Skeltons’ record with recruits of this nature speaks for itself, and on balance, he’s the one I’d side with on debut.
13:10 – Cheltenham Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 3m1f
An 18-runner amateur jockeys’ race at Cheltenham isn’t something that appeals to me from a betting perspective, but I’ll stick to my word and put up a fancy for each race.
With that in mind, KELCE catches the eye, running for the same trainer and owners as last year’s winner, Transmission. He’d be my pick of the bunch, but I’ll be sensible here and sit this one out.
13:45 – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m
This looks like it could be a really informative race for July Flower. She’s no price for a bet, but on form she looks the clear winner.
Burdett Road has always been a bit clumsy over hurdles, so it’ll be interesting to see whether he respects fences better. If the switch brings out any improvement, he has to be taken seriously.
BE AWARE could be the main danger. He was only half a length behind Burdett Road at this meeting last year and returns after gaining valuable experience on his chasing debut. He could easily have the edge this time. It’s also worth noting that he’s taken the same route as L’eau Du Sud last year, so make of that what you will.
I really like Stencil and think he’s capable of outrunning his odds if he performs to his best. He’s likely to improve for the switch to fences, and this could be the making of him, but with only two places on offer he doesn’t appeal much from a betting perspective.
If I had to pick one, I’d side with BE AWARE, though it wouldn’t be a strong bet — July Flower may simply prove too good.
14:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (In Memory Of Edward O’Grady) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is always a tricky puzzle to solve, and history suggests it rarely falls the way of the favourite. Only one favourite has won in the past 12 renewals, and just three winners have come from the top three in the betting. The sweet spot tends to be in the 8/1–14/1 range, with the average winning SP over the last 23 years sitting around 10/1.
Another trend worth noting is that winners are often rated 139 or higher while carrying 11st or less — though that angle may be slightly diluted this year, with much of the field being pushed up the weights due to the absence of the higher-rated Matata.
Il Ridoto has a strong record in this race and always gives his running. He’s had a prep and should be in the mix again, though his price doesn’t leave much room for value-seekers.
Dan Skelton runs Panic Attack, who isn’t without a chance, but his record in the race isn’t inspiring, and the fact he saddles three runners hints at a lack of confidence in a standout contender.
Hunter Legend should enjoy the ground, and Venetia Williams usually comes alive at this time of year — although she hasn’t had enough runners yet to confirm whether the yard is fully firing.
The one that really catches the eye is BAD. His latest effort was a superb round of slick, efficient jumping — very much the look of a deliberate prep for this. He barely put a foot wrong and shaped as though the return to 2m4f would suit, finishing strongly. There are minor question marks about him going left-handed, but if he reproduces that recent form, he looks a major player and could offer solid each-way value at a fair price.
14:55 – From The horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m
This race looks like it could offer some each-way value if you choose wisely.
Supremely West brings solid form behind Ma Shantou, and with the Skeltons flying at the moment he’s a major player—but the 15/8 doesn’t appeal, even if he is the most likely winner.
Kikijo is weighted to run well, but at 5/1 there isn’t quite enough there for me to get involved.
Long Draw arrives with a big shout after qualifying for the Pertemps, though I can’t help wondering whether connections might be protecting his mark with a bigger target in mind.
GOWEL ROAD always runs well here, and the ground may have been a bit too quick for him last time. It’s a tough ask off top weight, but he should relish conditions today and, for me, represents the each-way value in the race.
15:30 – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f
A competitive handicap hurdle with plenty of contenders, and it should make for an intriguing contest.
I quite like ROYAL INFANTRY here — he’s sure to come on for his seasonal reappearance, and that form has already been well advertised since. He looked as though he needed the run that day, and he should appreciate the conditions this time.
He does have to shoulder top weight, so some caution is warranted, especially with several potential improvers in the line-up. Even so, the trip should suit him, and it feels as though we still haven’t seen the best of him.
16:00 – Cheltenham Guardians Safeguarding Team mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-5yo) 2m 1/2f
Bumper races aren’t really my thing, so there’s no betting angle here for me.
That said, ROCK SENSATION might be capable of outrunning his odds. He finished second behind Willie Mullins’ Future Prospect before being picked up by Ben Pauling, and the pair pulled well clear of the field that day. He was very keen on his next start, but with another year under his belt he could easily prove a better horse this season.
