There’s prayer and hope that the ground gets to the softer side of good for my selection but this could look like a nice race to if every horse goes to post and I’m here to help point you in the direction of the winner.
14:25 – BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m 1 1/2f
12/12 – Had at least 2 previous wins over 16–18f
11/12 – Had at least 6 runs over 16–18f
11/12 – Had at least 2 previous Chase wins
10/12 – Had at least 5 previous Chase runs
10/12 – Ran 187+ days ago
9/12 – Within the top 3 of betting
9/12 – Had at least 3 previous Chase wins
9/12 – Rated 151+
9/12 – Won a Grade 1 or 2 race
8/12 – Aged 6 or 7
7/12 – Had run at Exeter previously
5/12 – Won at Exeter previously
4/12 – Favourites
4/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Won last time out
Trends tri-cast predicts: 🥇 JPR One , 🥈 Kalif Du Berlais , 🥉 Saint Segal
To see a detailed spreadsheet of which horse meets which trend, please press here.
KALIF DU BERLAIS looks the pick of the bunch for me. I was particularly taken by his victory at Aintree, where he comfortably saw off Brookie and L’Eau Du Sud.
L’Eau Du Sud is a very smart horse, and while that Aintree form hasn’t been fully tested yet, it’s worth noting he was fourth in this year’s Arkle, beaten just 1.5 lengths — a run that adds serious substance to the form. KALIF DU BERLAIS had him five lengths behind at Aintree, which reads extremely well in this context.
Brookie has since finished third behind Calico at the Cheltenham October Meeting. He looked to be carrying a bit of condition that day, so it’s fair to expect improvement next time. With that in mind, his performance might actually be stronger than it appears on paper.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has been open about his belief that KALIF DU BERLAIS could be his Champion Chase horse, which speaks volumes about the regard in which he’s held. Carrying top weight won’t make things easy, but if he’s to justify that lofty reputation, he should be winning or going very close here.
Looking at the trends, Nicholls boasts a fine record in this race, winning four of the last twelve renewals. Horses rated 151+ also have a strong recent record, accounting for nine of the last twelve winners. Only two runners in this year’s line-up meet that mark — KALIF DU BERLAIS (156) and JPR One (153).
🟩 SELECTION: KALIF DU BERLAIS – 6/4 WIN
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